What drives gold prices: real yields still matter, but no longer explain the trend
Reference guide: how much real yields explain gold prices, what changed after 2022 and what is not proven, with public data.
A read on the major commodities, with the origin of every figure in plain sight. Never a buy or sell recommendation.
Reference guide: how much real yields explain gold prices, what changed after 2022 and what is not proven, with public data.
The quarter's review: change since June and year to date, high and low, the Fed, ETFs and what to watch in Q4.
Gold's price, its drop since August 25, the gold/silver ratio and the Fed's effect.
Gold's (XAU/USD) price updated September 19, 2026, a six-week low ahead of the Fed meeting and a firmer dollar.
Brent crude oil's price, updated September 19, 2026.
Silver's price updated September 19, 2026.
Lithium's price on September 13, 2026, and the context of EV demand and mine supply.
Copper's price on September 13, 2026, and the context of supply shortages.
Natural gas (Henry Hub) price and the context of cooling demand and LNG exports.
Platinum's price and the context of industrial and hydrogen demand.
A commodity's price depends above all on the physical balance of supply and demand: output from mines and wells, inventories and industrial consumption. Because almost all of them are priced in dollars, a stronger dollar tends to make them more expensive for the rest of the world and weigh on prices. Oil and gas are also driven by geopolitics — shipping routes, sanctions, OPEC+ decisions — while gold and silver also react to real interest rates and safe-haven demand.
In this section we keep the causal chain of each move — what happened, where and according to whom — and distinguish sustained rallies from one-off spikes: a price can touch an intermediate high and fall back, and that is not the same as a trend. When two figures from the same source do not match, we flag it instead of forcing a calculation.
Benchmark prices (Brent, WTI, spot gold, Chinese lithium carbonate) are not always comparable with each other. The full criteria are on the methodology page and technical terms in the glossary.
Educational notice: the content on this site is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.