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Silver Falls to $62.82 Ahead of the Fed

Updated September 26, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov

Tenth correction, September 19, 2026: the final confirmed close for the September 18 session came in slightly higher than the figure in the earlier correction, which was published that same afternoon before the close. The rest of the article, with the earlier correction and all others, remains below as historical context.

VERIFIED Spot silver closed the September 18, 2026 session at $66.35 an ounce, up 1.41% on the day and 3.05% on the week, according to Rio Times Online. The level sits above its 50-day moving average ($64.93) but still below its 200-day average ($69.94).

The correction of the correction: two figures for the September 18 close

VERIFIED The first figure published for that close was $65.43 an ounce (+3.44% on the day), captured on the afternoon of Friday, September 18, before the market's final close, according to Rio Times Online. The next day, the same source confirmed the final close at $66.35 (+1.41% on the day, +3.05% on the week) — the figure that should be treated as current, and the one reflected in the correction above — according to Rio Times Online.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute the rebound to falling oil prices, which eased inflation concerns, and to Treasury yields easing back after the spike triggered by the Federal Reserve's own rate hike two days earlier. This is the reading circulating that day, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to Yahoo Finance.

What was behind the September 16 drop (earlier correction)

VERIFIED Spot silver fell 1.7% to $62.57 an ounce after the Federal Reserve's rate hike was announced on September 16, 2026, reversing the 1.5% gain it had built up beforehand to $64.60, according to GoldSilver.com.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute the sharp reversal to the rate hike, together with the signal that 16 of the Fed's 18 policymakers expect at least one more increase before year-end, strengthening the dollar and raising the opportunity cost of holding metals that pay no interest. This is the reading circulating that afternoon, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to the same source.

What was behind the September 16 rate hike (earlier correction)

VERIFIED The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first rate hike since July 2023, under Chair Kevin Warsh. The median projection among FOMC members themselves (the “dot plot”) points to another 25-basis-point hike before year-end, according to Fox Business.

HYPOTHESIS Gold and silver had risen in the sessions leading up to the decision, pricing in the hike the market already considered a near-certainty (a 92.5% probability per the CME Group's FedWatch tool); several outlets reported that both metals gave back as much as 1.3% of that gain after the announcement, once Warsh reaffirmed that inflation remains a threat despite the rate hike. This is the reading circulating while the market was still trading, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to GoldSilver.com.

CALCULATED Between August 26 ($68.78, spot, per Trading Economics) and the confirmed September 18 close ($66.35, spot, per Rio Times Online), silver shows a cumulative change of −3.53% — (66.35 − 68.78) / 68.78 × 100. This is Claromercado's own calculation from two figures already verified above, both spot prices though from different sources, not a figure published as such by any source.

Recent move history

Condensed summary of the corrections prior to the September 17 one. This is the reading circulating on each date, not a fact independently verified by this site, unless stated otherwise.

September 15: spot silver closed at $62.82 (-0.68%), with the gold/silver ratio virtually unchanged at 67.86 and both metals falling together, ahead of the Fed decision — the market then assigned a 92.5% probability to a rate hike (FedWatch, CME Group) and the 10-year Treasury yield was approaching 5%, according to USAGOLD and Yahoo Finance.
September 11: December futures opened at $64.04 (-1.2% from the previous close), with surging oil and gas prices lifting the implied odds of a rate hike from 62.2% to 69.4% just ahead of the US CPI release, according to Yahoo Finance.
September 4: silver traded at $66.67 (-0.46% from the previous session, cited at $66.98 by this same source), after briefly falling below $65 on a US jobs report far stronger than expected (162,000 payrolls versus the 56,000 forecast), which strengthened the dollar before losing momentum during the session, according to FXStreet and FXStreet.
September 3: silver traded at $65.88 (+0.87%), rebounding from a two-week low as the dollar and Treasury yields eased after dovish comments from Fed officials, according to FXStreet and Yahoo Finance. Note: this same source (FXStreet) cites the September 3 session at $65.88 here and at $66.98 when referring to it from the following day's article — a discrepancy between the two figures that we have not been able to resolve with the available sources, so they are not combined in any calculation.
September 2: silver traded at $63.87 (-0.35%), in a move several outlets attributed to remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that led markets to price in roughly a 70% chance of a September rate hike, according to FXStreet and Rio Times.
August 26 (two-month highs): silver traded at $68.78 (+0.27%), up 17.77% over the month and 78.24% over the year (its all-time high, $121.64, was reached in January 2026); several outlets attributed the level to solid industrial demand linked to the energy transition (solar panels, electric vehicles, AI data centers) and to the "debasement trade" gold was also following, after the US Treasury's decision to expand its buybacks of longer-dated debt, according to Trading Economics and Trading Economics.

Synthesis of the period

Between August 26 and September 19, 2026, silver went from trading near its two-month highs to a sharp correction after the Fed's September 16 rate hike, then recovered part of the lost ground in the following sessions up to the confirmed $66.35 close.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute this pattern to the metal moving in tandem with gold and remaining sensitive to real interest rates — every sign that more hikes lie ahead raises the cost of holding an asset that pays no interest — while underlying industrial demand supports the price during corrections. This is the reading that has circulated over these weeks, not a fact independently verified by this site.

What this does not mean

HYPOTHESIS Silver being up 78% over the past year does not put it at an all-time high: its current level, around $69, remains nearly 43% below the $121.64 it touched in January of this same year, 2026. This is a recovery from much lower levels, not confirmation that January's peak is about to be retested.

Sources for the tenth correction (corrects the previous one), September 18-19, 2026: Rio Times Online: Gold Rebounds to US$4,346 and Silver Jumps 3.44% After the Fed Hike, Rio Times Online: Gold Closes at US$4,380; Silver Gains 3.05% on the Week, Yahoo Finance: Silver price today, September 18, 2026. Sources for the eighth correction, September 17, 2026: GoldSilver.com: The Fed Just Hiked. 16 of 18 Officials Say It's Not Done. Sources for the seventh correction, September 16, 2026: Fox Business: Fed hikes interest rates for first time since 2023, GoldSilver.com: The Fed Just Hiked. 16 of 18 Officials Say It's Not Done.. Sources for the condensed history (August 26 → September 15, 2026): USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, September 15, 2026, Yahoo Finance: Silver prices today, September 15, 2026, Yahoo Finance: Silver price today, September 11, 2026, FXStreet: Silver price today, September 4, 2026, FXStreet: Silver claws back post-NFP losses, FXStreet: Silver price today, September 3, 2026, Yahoo Finance: Silver price today, September 3, 2026, FXStreet: Silver price today, September 2, 2026, Rio Times: Gold Slips Below $4,400, Silver Tumbles on Rate-Hike Bets, Trading Economics: Silver, price and stats, Trading Economics: Silver Steadies Ahead of US PCE Inflation Data.

Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.