A read on the major currency pairs, with the origin of every figure in plain sight. Never a buy or sell recommendation.
Reference guide: the euro against the dollar since 1999 on ECB data, all-time highs and lows (ECB vs FRED), six major cycles, parity and how much rate gaps explain.
Reference guide: USD/JPY through 2026 with dates, the year's high and low, the Bank of Japan, the Fed, interventions and the rate gap.
EUR/USD's rate updated September 21, 2026: Friday's close at $1.1486, down almost 1% for the week after the Fed's rate hike.
USD/JPY on September 13, 2026, and the Bank of Japan's rate outlook.
GBP/USD on September 13, 2026, and the context of the Bank of England and Jackson Hole.
USD/CHF on September 13, 2026, and the context of Swiss National Bank policy.
AUD/USD on September 13, 2026, and the context of a possible Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike.
USD/CAD exchange rate and the context of tariffs and Bank of Canada rates.
USD/MXN exchange rate and the context of Bank of Mexico policy.
An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another, so it always reflects two economies at once. What moves it most is the interest-rate gap between the two central banks and what the market expects them to do at their next meetings: if one is expected to hike and the other is not, its currency usually strengthens. Inflation and jobs data, safe-haven flows in times of stress and, for some currencies, the price of the commodities the country exports also play a part.
That is why the analyses in this section pay close attention to the central-bank calendar and date every decision precisely: one day's difference in a meeting changes how the whole move reads. We separate the verified figure — a close, an official decision — from the explanation attributed to analysts.
Currencies trade in pairs and usually with leverage, which amplifies gains and losses. The full criteria are on the methodology page and technical terms in the glossary.
Educational notice: the content on this site is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.