USD/JPY Exchange Rate 2026: How the Yen Has Moved and What Drives It

Updated October 4, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov

This is a reference page, not a daily news story. It brings together how the yen-dollar exchange rate has moved through 2026, which decisions moved it and which data to watch next. Every figure has a source; our own calculations are marked CALCULATED and can be redone from the numbers shown.

What USD/JPY means

USD/JPY is the number of yen needed to buy one US dollar. When the pair rises (say, from 150 to 160), the dollar gets more expensive and the yen weakens; when it falls, the yen strengthens. That is why a headline saying "the yen rises" usually means USD/JPY went down. It is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world and very sensitive to the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan.

USD/JPY in 2026, in numbers

VERIFIED According to the Federal Reserve's daily DEXJPUS series (New York noon buying rate, published on FRED), the dollar ended 2025 at 156.80 yen (December 31). The latest value available in that series is 156.87 (September 18, 2026, the day of the Bank of Japan's hike). The year's daily high was 163.86 on July 29 and the low 152.64 on February 12.

CALCULATED From the European Central Bank reference rates of October 2, 2026 (1 euro = 176.99 yen and 1 euro = 1.1225 dollars), the implied cross rate is 176.99 ÷ 1.1225 = 157.67 yen per dollar. It is an approximate reference: the ECB fixes its rates at 14:15 Frankfurt time, not at New York noon, so it is kept out of the Fed-based table.

CALCULATED Year to date, the pair has barely moved on a net basis: 156.80 → 156.87 = +0.04% (using the ECB cross of October 2, 156.80 → 157.67 = +0.56%). The ride, however, has been wide: 11.22 yen, or 7.35%, separate the low from the high (152.64 → 163.86). The latest value is 4.27% below the July high (163.86 → 156.87) and 2.77% above the February low (152.64 → 156.87). All values come from the same DEXJPUS series.

What moved the yen in 2026

1. The Bank of Japan raised rates twice

VERIFIED The Bank of Japan started the year with its policy rate at 0.75% and held it in January, March and April, with a growing number of dissents: in April the vote was 6 to 3, with three members already calling for 1.0% (April 28 statement). On June 16 it raised the rate to 1.0% (7 to 1) (June 16 statement), held it on July 31 and on September 18 lifted it to 1.25% by 7 votes to 2, effective September 24 (September 18 statement). Its next meetings are October 29-30 and December 17-18, 2026, according to its official schedule.

2. The Federal Reserve hiked, it did not cut

VERIFIED The Fed kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its first five meetings of the year and on September 16 raised it by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimously (FOMC statement). The next meetings are October 27-28 and December 8-9, according to the Fed's calendar.

3. The rate gap is still wide

CALCULATED Using the top of the Fed's range and the Bank of Japan's rate, the gap was 3.00 points at the start of the year (3.75 − 0.75) and is 2.75 points today (4.00 − 1.25): it narrowed by only 0.25 points, because in September both central banks hiked by the same amount. In 10-year bonds, the US Treasury yielded 5.29% on September 30 (FRED, DGS10) and the Japanese government bond 3.057% (Japan's Ministry of Finance): 5.29 − 3.057 = 2.23 points, compared with 2.11 at the end of 2025 (4.18 − 2.066).

HYPOTHESIS As long as investors earn clearly more by holding dollars than yen, borrowing in yen to invest in dollars (the so-called carry trade) stays attractive, which tends to support the dollar against the yen. The fact that the gap barely narrowed helps explain why the pair is still close to where it started the year, despite two Bank of Japan hikes.

4. Japan intervened to stop the yen's slide

VERIFIED According to official data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, the government sold dollars and bought yen on April 30 (¥6.28 trillion), May 4 (¥0.78 trillion) and May 6 (¥4.68 trillion): ¥11.73 trillion in total. Its monthly report of August 28 disclosed another ¥15.4 trillion between July 30 and August 26, and no intervention between August 27 and September 28 (September 30 report). The day-by-day breakdown for July-August has not been published yet.

CALCULATED In the Fed series, the pair fell sharply on those same dates: from April 29 to April 30, 160.23 → 156.66 (−2.23%), and from July 29 to July 30, 163.86 → 159.47 (−2.68%), extending to 156.96 on August 3 (−4.21% from the high).

HYPOTHESIS For the July intervention the timing match is strong, but the Ministry has not yet confirmed on which days it acted: until it publishes the breakdown, the July 30 move cannot be attributed to a specific operation.

5. Inflation: higher in the US than in Japan

VERIFIED In August 2026 consumer prices rose 1.9% year on year in Japan (1.7% excluding fresh food), according to the Statistics Bureau of Japan, and 3.4% in the United States (2.4% core), according to the BLS. September data come out on October 14 (US) and October 23 (Japan).

CALCULATED Subtracting headline inflation from the policy rate gives an approximate "real" rate of +0.60 points in the US (4.00 − 3.4) and −0.65 in Japan (1.25 − 1.9). It is a simple approximation, useful for comparison: money held in yen still earns less than Japanese inflation.

What to watch next

• October 27-28: Fed meeting. Another hike would widen the gap; a pause would not.
• October 29-30: Bank of Japan meeting, two days later. It is the factor most able to narrow the gap.
• October 14 and 23: September inflation in the US and Japan.
• The Ministry of Finance's breakdown of the July-August intervention, and any official comment on the yen when the pair approaches the levels where Japan intervened (above 160).
• The US 10-year Treasury yield, which has gone from 4.18% to 5.29% this year and matters as much as policy rates.

HYPOTHESIS None of the above is an exchange rate forecast. These are the factors that, on 2026 data, have accompanied the pair's moves; any of them may weigh differently in the coming months.

This guide and our USD/JPY news pieces

Daily analysis pieces, such as the August 26 story on the yen at 159 per dollar, describe what happened at a specific moment. This guide is the year-long overview and is updated with each relevant data point. For other currencies, see the currencies section.

Sources consulted on October 4, 2026: FRED: Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXJPUS), ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates, Bank of Japan: September 18, 2026 decision, Bank of Japan: June 16, 2026 decision, Bank of Japan: April 28, 2026 decision, Bank of Japan: meeting schedule, Federal Reserve: September 16, 2026 statement, Federal Reserve: FOMC calendar, Japan's Ministry of Finance: foreign exchange interventions, Japan's Ministry of Finance: JGB yields, FRED: 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10), Statistics Bureau of Japan: CPI, BLS: US CPI.

Educational notice: this guide is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a buy or sell recommendation for any currency. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.