Lithium rises 7% in a month in China despite mines coming back online
Updated September 27, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov
VERIFIED Lithium carbonate trades at 157,000 Chinese yuan per tonne in China on August 25, 2026, down 2.18% from the previous session, according to Trading Economics. Over the past month it has risen 7.17%, reaching its highest level in a month, and it is up 92.13% over the past twelve months.
VERIFIED As of September 22, 2026, lithium carbonate trades at 134,450 Chinese yuan per tonne in China, up 0.04% from the previous session — practically flat on the day — but down 16.23% over the past month; over the past twelve months it is still up 82.06%, according to Trading Economics (same source and series as the August figure above).
CALCULATED Compared with the 157,000 yuan/t of August 25, 2026 cited above, the current price (134,450 yuan/t, September 22) represents a 14.36% drop since this article was published — Claromercado's own calculation on the two Trading Economics figures, same benchmark (battery-grade lithium carbonate, Chinese market) and same currency and unit at both ends.
What is behind the move
HYPOTHESIS Per Trading Economics, the past month's rise reflects signs of growing demand offsetting a recent respite on the supply side. China's push to electrify its economy has driven local governments to back electricity-storage projects alongside renewable power sources — including the Medog Hydropower Station and Beijing's announcement that it will double national EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027. This is the reading circulating this week, not a fact independently verified by this site, per Trading Economics.
HYPOTHESIS On the supply side, the same source flags uncertainty over how quickly CATL's Jianxiawo mine — one of the largest in the world — will resume operations, after being suspended last year when Beijing declined to renew its license as part of efforts to fight producer-price deflation. Limiting the rebound, Mineral Resources is restarting its Australian Bald Hill lithium mine after an 18-month suspension, and Core Lithium has restarted its Finniss project.
VERIFIED On that same mine, Bald Hill (Mineral Resources, Australia) resumed production on May 19, 2026, with a capacity of 140,000 tonnes a year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as reported by DiscoveryAlert.
ESTIMATED On how long the current oversupply will last, analysts' projections differ markedly: Cochilco projects a market surplus of about 18,900 tonnes for 2027, while Morgan Stanley projects a much larger one, of more than 650,000 tonnes — two third-party estimates, not a consolidated figure nor this site's own calculation, according to the same source.
What this does not mean
HYPOTHESIS A 92% price increase over the year does not amount to a broad shortage: the same coverage describes mines that had sat idle for over a year coming back into production, which points to supply that can respond fairly quickly if prices stay elevated. A 7% monthly gain after months of declines mostly reflects a bounce off a low, not necessarily the start of a sustained trend.
HYPOTHESIS September's correction bears out that caution: the August rebound did turn out to be a temporary, supply-linked reversal rather than the start of a sustained trend — the scenario this same article had already raised as possible the month before.
How it compares with other industrial commodities
HYPOTHESIS Lithium's pattern — supply that responds quickly once prices rise, with idled mines returning to production — resembles what this site has described for copper, where one-off supply disruptions (flooding, strikes, export restrictions) have also outweighed underlying demand in short-term price swings. In both cases, a sharp rally over a few weeks says more about the supply available at that moment than about a structural shift in demand.
Sources consulted on August 26, 2026: Trading Economics: Lithium, price and stats, Trading Economics: Lithium Rebounds to 1-Month High. Additional sources consulted on September 22, 2026: Trading Economics: Lithium (updated price), DiscoveryAlert: Why Lithium's Price Correction Is Less Bearish Than It Looks.
Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.