Natural gas rises to $2.93/MMBtu, five-week high
Updated on September 27, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov
VERIFIED Natural gas (Henry Hub benchmark) trades at $2.93/MMBtu, up 1.42% on the session, per Trading Economics checked on August 31, 2026. That is its highest level in more than five weeks. Over the past month it is up 5.32%, though it remains 1.80% below a year ago.
What's behind the rise
HYPOTHESIS Several market outlets attribute the rise to forecasts of above-average temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the US from September 2-11, which would keep cooling demand elevated, per Trading Economics. This is the explanation circulating this week, not a fact independently verified by this site.
VERIFIED US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the third quarter of 2026 are forecast at 16.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), down 0.2 Bcf/d from last month's forecast; maintenance at Freeport LNG, which began July 10, was expected to be completed by late August and affects 2.0 Bcf/d of nominal export capacity, per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
What this does NOT mean
VERIFIED The EIA itself lowered its 2026 Henry Hub average price forecast from $3.67 in July to $3.44/MMBtu, citing robust domestic production and elevated storage levels.
CALCULATED That is a 6.27% cut (3.44 / 3.67 − 1).
CALCULATED The August 31 price ($2.93/MMBtu) sits 14.83% below that $3.44 forecast for the 2026 average (2.93 / 3.44 − 1): even after the five-week high, gas was trading well below the average level the EIA itself expects for the year — Claromercado's own calculation, not a figure published by the source.
HYPOTHESIS A stretch of hot days does not change that underlying well-supplied-market diagnosis — the two signals coexist, neither cancels the other.
How it compares with oil
HYPOTHESIS Unlike Brent, whose big moves on this site have almost always been tied to the US-Iran military escalation, Henry Hub natural gas moves mainly on domestic US factors: weather forecasts, storage levels, and the pace of LNG exports. These are two energy markets with fairly different price logic, even though they share a section on this site.
Follow-up (September 27, 2026)
VERIFIED Henry Hub natural gas trades at $3.196/MMBtu on September 25, 2026, down 3.06% on the session after hitting a 13-week high the day before; it is up 11.20% over the past month and down 0.31% over the year, according to Trading Economics. In its September 9 report, the EIA now puts the Henry Hub average at $3.43/MMBtu for 2026 and $3.28 for 2027.
VERIFIED On the storage levels the EIA cited when cutting its forecast: as of September 18, 2026, there were 3,351 Bcf of working gas in storage in the Lower 48, 95 Bcf above the five-year average (3,256 Bcf) and versus 3,497 Bcf a year earlier, according to the EIA weekly report released September 24.
CALCULATED From $2.93 on August 31, the price is up 9.08%, and the gap to the EIA's average forecast narrows from 14.83% to 6.82% (3.196 / 3.43 − 1). Storage sits 2.92% above the five-year average but 4.18% below a year ago (146 Bcf less) — Claromercado's own calculation, not a figure published by the source.
HYPOTHESIS A storage cushion that is narrowing against the average fits September's rally, but it is still positive: the well-supplied market diagnosis has not gone away, it has softened.
Sources consulted on August 31, 2026: Trading Economics: Natural Gas, EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook. Additional sources consulted on September 27, 2026: Trading Economics: Natural Gas (updated price), EIA: STEO, natural gas (September 9, 2026), EIA: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (September 24, 2026).
Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may contain errors, and is not financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.