Gold gains 5% in Q3 2026 after its worst quarter since 2013

Published on September 30, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov

How this review is built: every quarterly comparison uses a single series, the daily data for the front-month gold futures contract (GC=F, Comex) from Yahoo Finance [1], always close against close. Futures do not trade at exactly the spot price, and the continuous series rolls to the next contract when the nearest one expires, so these figures will not match to the cent those in our September 29 analysis, which used USAGOLD spot prices. Our own calculations are marked CALCULATED and interpretations, HYPOTHESIS.

VERIFIED On September 30, 2026, at 13:08 UTC with the session still open, gold futures were trading at $4,242.50 an ounce. On June 30, the last day of the second quarter, they had closed at $4,038.50, and on December 31, 2025, at $4,341.10, according to the same Yahoo Finance series [1]. As a spot reference, Trading Economics put gold at $4,202.20 on September 30, up 0.48% on the day [2].

The quarter in numbers

CALCULATED Using those three figures from the same series, gold is up +5.05% for the third quarter at the time of writing: (4,242.50 − 4,038.50) / 4,038.50 × 100, or $204 an ounce above the June close. Year to date it is still negative: (4,242.50 − 4,341.10) / 4,341.10 × 100 = −2.27%. The first half had ended at −6.97% on the same series. These are Claromercado's own calculations, not figures published by the source.

VERIFIED The starting point was weak. According to USAGOLD's July 1 report [3], spot gold closed June at about $4,014 after a 14% drop in the second quarter: its first losing quarter since Q4 2024 and the steepest decline since Q2 2013. StoneX's quarterly outlook, published on September 28, put the Q3 gain at 6.4% as of September 25, with a 4% loss for the month, and noted that the metal was still about 23% below its January peak of $5,598 [4].

From the July low to the August high

VERIFIED The net result hides a wide range. On the futures series, the quarter's intraday low was $3,963.00 on July 17 and its high $4,755.00 on August 25; on a closing basis, the lowest was $3,992.10 (July 16) and the highest $4,697.80 (August 24) [1]. StoneX, using spot prices, describes a quarter spent mostly between $4,000 and $4,500, with an August peak of $4,696 and summer lows at $3,942 [4].

CALCULATED From the July low to the August high, futures rose +19.98%; from that high to the September 30 quote, they are down −10.78%. Put differently, more than half of the summer rally has been handed back in five weeks, and the quarter's final tally depends on where the last session closes.

What moved gold between July and September

VERIFIED The Federal Reserve. On June 30 the market was already pricing a 64% probability of a September rate hike, according to USAGOLD [5]. The hike came on September 16: 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range, by a unanimous vote and for the first time since July 2023; the Fed's projections point to one more 25-point hike this year, according to Fox Business [6].

VERIFIED Bonds and the dollar. On September 29 the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.25% and the dollar index at 101.37, a two-month high, according to Rio Times Online [7]. StoneX puts the real 10-year yield (adjusted for 3.4% inflation) at around 1.6% [4].

VERIFIED ETFs and central banks. Gold ETFs took in $18 billion in August and their holdings reached a record 4,189 tonnes; over the first eight months of the year, inflows totalled $29 billion and 160 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council [8]. The People's Bank of China bought 20.2 tonnes in August, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to WGC data cited by USAGOLD [9].

HYPOTHESIS What stands out is that gold rose in the same quarter in which the Fed went back to hiking, which in theory hurts an asset that pays no interest. A reasonable reading is that the hike was already priced in by June (that 64%), and that ETF and central-bank demand held the floor in the meantime. What knocked the price down in September was not the hike itself but the prospect of a second one, fed by oil and by yields that keep climbing.

What has changed since June

VERIFIED On September 29, weaker-than-expected jobs and consumer data (job openings of 7.079 million and consumer confidence of 81.9, the lowest since 2014) cut the probability of another rate hike to about 51.5% from 70.9%, according to Rio Times Online [7].

HYPOTHESIS In June the question was whether the Fed would hike; now it is whether it will hike a second time. The market has moved from fearing a change of cycle to debating its size, and that matters for an asset that responds mainly to real rates. The quarter has also shown that physical demand does not vanish when prices fall. Neither point settles the direction of the fourth quarter.

What to watch in Q4

VERIFIED The Fed's two remaining meetings in 2026 are on October 27–28 and December 8–9; the December meeting comes with new economic projections, according to the Fed's official calendar [10]. China's Golden Week, October 1–7, traditionally opens the country's peak gold-buying season, according to USAGOLD [9]. StoneX sees a US–Iran deal as a possible support for gold, since it would ease rate-hike expectations, and flags technical resistance near $4,400 [4].

HYPOTHESIS To follow the fourth quarter, three gauges say more than the daily price: the probability of an October hike, the real 10-year yield, and September ETF flows, which have not been published yet. If real rates stop rising and underlying demand holds, the summer's argument still stands; if the Fed confirms a second hike with oil still high, the quarter now starting may look more like September than like July and August.

Sources consulted on September 30, 2026: [1] Yahoo Finance: Gold futures (GC=F), daily historical data, [2] Trading Economics: Gold, [3] USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, July 1, 2026, [4] StoneX: Gold Q4 2026 outlook (September 28, 2026), [5] USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, June 30, 2026, [6] Fox Business: Fed hikes interest rates for first time since 2023, [7] Rio Times Online: Gold Rebounds 1.4% to US$4,185 as Weak US Data Cools Fed Hike Bets, [8] World Gold Council: Gold ETF flows, August 2026, [9] USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, September 29, 2026, [10] Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars.

Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may contain errors, and is not financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.