Gold falls to $4,149, down 10% since August 25
Published on September 29, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov
How to read this analysis: every figure carries its source and date. When we compare two prices we always use the same source and the same type of price (spot gold against spot gold); our own calculations are marked CALCULATED and the explanations circulating in the market are marked HYPOTHESIS.
VERIFIED Spot gold was trading at $4,148.69 an ounce on September 28, 2026, down $136.59 (-3.19%) on the day, according to the daily report from USAGOLD [1]. During the same session the metal fell as much as 3% to $4,156.45 at 08:14 GMT, its lowest level since August 5, according to the same source.
VERIFIED On September 29 gold was rebounding slightly: it rose 0.25% to $4,125.39 an ounce, down 7.11% over the past month and up 6.90% from a year earlier, according to Trading Economics [2]. That figure comes from a different source and a different time of day, so we do not mix it with the USAGOLD figures in the calculations below.
How far it has fallen since our August 25 analysis
VERIFIED In our August 25 analysis spot gold was trading at $4,627.36 an ounce and silver at $67.82, according to USAGOLD's report for that day [3]. On September 18, two days after the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the same report put gold at $4,368.60 and silver at $67.18 [4].
CALCULATED Using the three USAGOLD readings (same source, same spot price type), gold lost $478.67 an ounce, or 10.34%, between August 25 and September 28. Of that drop, 5.03% has come since September 18 alone. Silver fell 9.27% over the full period, but 8.41% since September 18: in other words, almost all of its decline is concentrated in the last ten days — Claromercado's own calculation, not a figure published by the source.
The gold/silver ratio: what it says about the kind of drop
CALCULATED Dividing the price of gold by the price of silver on each date, the gold/silver ratio moves from 68.23 on August 25 to 65.03 on September 18 and back to 67.43 on September 28. The source itself rounded it to "68.2" and "67.4" in its August 25 and September 28 reports, and to "roughly 65" on September 18 [1][3][4].
HYPOTHESIS The ratio measures how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. The fact that it fell in mid-September and has risen again indicates that silver held up better early in the month and has fallen faster at the end. A common reading is that silver, with a larger share of industrial demand, suffers more when the market fears higher rates for longer. It is an interpretation, not a mechanical relationship: the ratio also moves with mine supply and with investment flows specific to each metal. We cover this in our silver analysis.
Last week, in one figure
VERIFIED Spot gold closed on Friday, September 25 at $4,284.91 an ounce (+0.46% on the day) for a weekly loss of 2.2%; silver closed at $64.29 (-3.1% for the week), according to Rio Times Online [5]. The previous Friday, September 18, the same source had reported a close of $4,380.01 [6].
CALCULATED Between Rio Times Online's two weekly closes gold lost $95.10, or 2.17%, consistent with the -2.2% published by the source. Rio Times closes and USAGOLD readings are not taken at the same time, which is why each calculation uses figures from a single source only.
What is moving the price
VERIFIED The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 16, to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, unanimously (12-0) and for the first time since July 2023; the median member projects another 25-point hike before year-end, and the next meeting is on October 27-28, according to Fox Business [7].
VERIFIED On September 28 traders assigned a 70.3% probability to another hike in October, up from 64.2% the day before, according to CME's FedWatch tool as cited by USAGOLD. The 10-year Treasury yield was above 5.2%, and Brent was heading back toward $106 after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [1].
HYPOTHESIS The chain described in this week's coverage goes like this: more expensive oil fuels expected inflation, which raises the odds of further rate hikes, yields and the dollar rise, and gold — which pays no interest — loses relative appeal. Yahoo Finance attributes the September 28 drop to a stronger dollar, rising bond yields and expectations of another rate increase [8]. That is the reading in circulation, not a fact independently verified by this site.
CALCULATED To put a number on that "opportunity cost": with gold at $4,148.69 and the 10-year yield above 5.2% (both from the same USAGOLD report of September 28), someone holding one ounce of gold gives up at least about $215.73 a year in interest they would earn with the same money in bonds (4,148.69 × 0.052). This is a teaching approximation: it ignores taxes, changes in the bond's price and inflation — Claromercado's own calculation.
ETFs and central banks: the demand that has not gone away
VERIFIED Physically backed gold ETFs took in US$18 billion in August 2026; their holdings rose 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes and their assets under management grew 16% to US$615 billion, according to the World Gold Council (report dated September 9) [9]. The WGC added that, as of September 7, demand was continuing to show strength.
VERIFIED Central banks made net purchases of 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, 62% more than the 177.9 tonnes of the same quarter of 2025, and 345 tonnes in the first half, the lowest for a first half since 2022, according to the World Gold Council [10].
CALCULATED Subtracting the second quarter from the half-year, central banks' net purchases in the first quarter were about 56 tonnes (345 − 289): the second quarter accounted for more than five times the volume of the first — our own calculation from the two WGC figures.
HYPOTHESIS ETF and central bank data arrive with a lag of several weeks, so they do not yet reflect the late-September drop. What they do show is that the current decline does not start from an exodus of structural buyers, but from a rapid shift in rate expectations. If September flows, which the WGC will publish in October, remain positive while the price falls, that would be a sign that underlying demand is holding up.
What this does NOT mean
HYPOTHESIS A 10% drop in a month does not by itself say whether gold will keep falling. The price is still above its level of a year ago according to Trading Economics [2], and the same August now being corrected was a month of strong gains. What changed in September is the rate outlook: as long as the market expects more Fed hikes and oil stays high, gold faces a headwind; if those expectations cool, the reasoning reverses. The next checkpoints are October's inflation and jobs data and the Fed meeting on October 27-28.
Sources consulted on September 29, 2026: [1] USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, September 28, 2026, [2] Trading Economics: Gold, [3] USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, August 25, 2026, [4] USAGOLD: Daily Precious Metals Market Report, September 18, 2026, [5] Rio Times Online: Gold & Silver Friday Session: LatAm Miners Read, [6] Rio Times Online: Gold Closes at US$4,380; Silver Gains 3.05% on the Week, [7] Fox Business: Fed hikes interest rates for first time since 2023, [8] Yahoo Finance: Gold prices today, September 28, 2026, [9] World Gold Council: Gold ETF flows, August 2026, [10] World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, Central banks.
Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may contain errors, and is not financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.