The S&P 500 in euros: how much the exchange rate changes the return (2000-2025)
A guide built on European Central Bank data and Damodaran's historical series (NYU Stern), 2000 to 2025. Updated October 5, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov
Short answer: in 2025 the S&P 500 returned 17.78% in dollars, dividends included, but a euro-based investor without currency hedging ended up with 4.14%, because the dollar lost 11.58% against the euro. Over five-year horizons, the currency has moved the result by between −7.7 and +4.2 points a year; over twenty years, between −1.4 and +1.4. It does not go away with time, but it weighs much less than the index itself.
This is a reference page, not a news story. The data are public series and the calculations are our own: they are marked CALCULATED and can be reproduced with the method explained at the end. The period ends in 2025, the last full year with consistent data.
How the return in euros is calculated
Someone in the euro area who invests in the S&P 500 makes two bets at once: one on the index, which is priced in dollars, and one on the exchange rate, because the money is eventually converted back into euros. The arithmetic is exact:
Return in euros = (1 + return in dollars) × (1 + currency effect) − 1, where the currency effect is how much the dollar has gained against the euro over the same period.
CALCULATED An example with 2025. At the end of 2024, €10,000 was worth $10,389 (1.0389 dollars per euro, ECB reference rate). With the S&P 500 up 17.78%, those dollars grew to $12,236. At the end of 2025 the euro was worth 1.1750 dollars, so $12,236 came to €10,414: a +4.14% for the euro-based investor. The difference is not explained by the index, but by the exchange rate.
Year by year, 2000 to 2025
CALCULATED S&P 500 return with dividends in dollars, the exchange-rate effect, and the unhedged result in euros. In 12 of the 26 years the currency subtracted; in only two (2007 and 2018) it changed the sign of the result: positive in dollars and negative in euros.
| Year | USD | Currency | EUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | −9.03% | +7.96% | −1.79% |
| 2001 | −11.85% | +5.58% | −6.93% |
| 2002 | −21.97% | −15.96% | −34.43% |
| 2003 | +28.36% | −16.97% | +6.58% |
| 2004 | +10.74% | −7.28% | +2.68% |
| 2005 | +4.83% | +15.46% | +21.04% |
| 2006 | +15.61% | −10.43% | +3.56% |
| 2007 | +5.48% | −10.54% | −5.63% |
| 2008 | −36.55% | +5.78% | −32.88% |
| 2009 | +25.94% | −3.39% | +21.67% |
| 2010 | +14.82% | +7.81% | +23.79% |
| 2011 | +2.10% | +3.27% | +5.44% |
| 2012 | +15.89% | −1.93% | +13.65% |
| 2013 | +32.15% | −4.33% | +26.43% |
| 2014 | +13.52% | +13.59% | +28.95% |
| 2015 | +1.38% | +11.52% | +13.06% |
| 2016 | +11.77% | +3.28% | +15.44% |
| 2017 | +21.61% | −12.11% | +6.89% |
| 2018 | −4.23% | +4.74% | +0.31% |
| 2019 | +31.21% | +1.92% | +33.73% |
| 2020 | +18.02% | −8.45% | +8.05% |
| 2021 | +28.47% | +8.34% | +39.19% |
| 2022 | −18.04% | +6.19% | −12.97% |
| 2023 | +26.06% | −3.48% | +21.68% |
| 2024 | +24.88% | +6.36% | +32.83% |
| 2025 | +17.78% | −11.58% | +4.14% |
What matters: the investment horizon
CALCULATED A single year says little. The useful question is how much the currency can move the result for someone who holds the investment for five, ten, fifteen or twenty years. To answer it, we calculate the annualized currency effect in every window of consecutive years that fits between 2000 and 2025:
| Horizon | Worst | Best | Subtracted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | −7.72% 2002-06 | +4.18% 2012-16 | 9 of 22 |
| 10 years | −3.77% 2002-11 | +2.52% 2010-19 | 6 of 17 |
| 15 years | −1.25% 2000-14 | +2.20% 2010-24 | 5 of 12 |
| 20 years | −1.37% 2001-20 | +1.36% 2005-24 | 4 of 7 |
Two takeaways. First: the range narrows as the horizon lengthens, but it does not disappear; over twenty years of investing, the currency has still added or subtracted up to 1.4 points a year. Second: with so few data points, and with windows that share most of their years, these ranges are best read as what happened between 2000 and 2025, not as a limit on what can happen.
Periods when the currency decided the result
| Period | USD | EUR |
|---|---|---|
| 2000-2009 a year | −1.0% | −4.5% |
| 2002-2007 cumulative | +42% | −15% |
| 2010-2025 a year | +14.0% | +15.5% |
| 2000-2025 a year | +8.0% | +7.3% |
| 2025 | +17.78% | +4.14% |
CALCULATED Between 2002 and 2007 the S&P 500 gained 42% in dollars, while a euro-based investor lost 15%: the dollar fell sharply against the euro in those years. Over 2000 to 2025 as a whole the gap is small (8.0% a year in dollars versus 7.3% in euros), but it depends on the starting point and the end point.
Price, dividends and withholding tax
CALCULATED The figures in this guide include dividends. Without them, on price change alone, the S&P 500 gained 16.39% in 2025 instead of 17.78%. Between 2000 and 2025 dividends contributed 1.90 points a year on average.
VERIFIED A foreign investor does not receive those dividends in full: as a general rule, the United States withholds 30% of US-source income paid to foreign persons, a rate that may be reduced under a tax treaty (IRS).
ESTIMATED As an order of magnitude, 30% withholding would have taken about 0.57 points a year off the return, and a reduced 15% rate about 0.28. This is a simplified scenario: actual withholding depends on the product and on each investor's situation, and this guide does not cover taxation.
What if the currency is hedged?
Some funds and ETFs neutralize most of the dollar's movement against the euro using forward contracts. Their benchmark is a hedged index: the S&P 500 in euros with the dollar exposure hedged.
VERIFIED According to the fact sheet of the iShares S&P 500 EUR Hedged UCITS ETF, its benchmark, the S&P 500 EUR Hedged, returned 15.15% in 2025 (BlackRock). That year, the hedged version ended up much closer to the result in dollars (+17.78%) than the unhedged version (+4.14%).
CALCULATED Using the ten annual figures in the same fact sheet, the hedged index returned 11.7% a year between 2016 and 2025. Unhedged, by our calculation, the result was 13.8% a year with gross dividends and 13.3% under the 30% withholding scenario. The figures are not comparable to the decimal, because indices can treat dividends differently, but they are comparable in order of magnitude. With either calculation, the hedged version came out ahead in 4 of those 10 years (2017, 2020, 2023 and 2025).
CALCULATED Why is a hedge not neutral? Hedging against the dollar is, broadly speaking, equivalent to earning the short-term euro interest rate and paying the short-term dollar rate. Since 2015, 3-month Euribor (ECB) has been below the yield on 3-month US Treasury bills (FRED) in every year, with an annual average gap of up to 2.4 points (2019); between 2008 and 2014 it was the other way round. That differential explains the mechanism, but it is not the result of hedging: the difference between investing hedged and unhedged also depends on what the exchange rate does, which is why it should not be read as “what hedging costs”.
What this guide does not say
- It does not recommend investing with or without currency hedging: it shows what happened with each option.
- It is not a forecast of the S&P 500 or of the euro against the dollar.
- These are indices, not funds: it does not include fees, taxes or how each product differs from its index.
- It does not cover how funds and ETFs are taxed in Spain.
VERIFIED On 2026: there is not yet a total-return series comparable to Damodaran's, so this guide ends in 2025. What we do know is that, up to October 2, 2026, the dollar has gained 4.68% against the euro (from 1.1750 to 1.1225 dollars per euro, according to the ECB), which so far works in the euro-based investor's favor.
Methodology
Data. S&P 500 with dividends: Damodaran's annual series «S&P 500 (includes dividends)», NYU Stern (updated January 5, 2026). Year-end index level and dividends: «Historical Implied Equity Risk Premiums» table by the same author; the return rebuilt from them matches the published one with a maximum difference of 0.06 points. Exchange rate: ECB reference rate (dollars per euro, 14:15 CET) on the last business day of each year, series EXR.A.USD.EUR.SP00.E; checked against FRED's DEXUSEU series (maximum difference of 0.0118 dollars per euro, because the rates are fixed at different times). 3-month Euribor: ECB. 3-month Treasury bills: FRED TB3MS. Hedged index: fact sheet of the iShares S&P 500 EUR Hedged UCITS ETF, consulted on October 5, 2026.
Calculations. Currency effect for year t = rate at the close of t−1 / rate at the close of t − 1 (change of the dollar in euros). Return in euros = (1 + return in dollars) × (1 + currency effect) − 1. Annualized = (product of (1 + r))^(1/n) − 1. Windows: consecutive years starting in 2000 or later and ending in 2025 or earlier. Withholding: 15% or 30% of the dividend contribution (return with dividends minus price return) is subtracted.
Limitations. Gross, annual dividends, following Damodaran's convention. No fees or taxes. The year 1999 is left out because there is no ECB rate for the end of 1998. The windows overlap. The hedged index comes from a different source and may treat dividends differently.
This guide and our S&P 500 analyses
The daily analyses, such as the one from August 25 or the one from September 29, cover what happened at a specific moment. For the exchange rate, see our analysis of the euro against the dollar and, as another example of how much a currency can weigh, the guide to the yen against the dollar.
Sources consulted on October 5, 2026: Damodaran (NYU Stern): Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills, Damodaran (NYU Stern): Historical Implied Equity Risk Premiums, ECB: US dollar/euro reference exchange rate, end of period, ECB: 3-month Euribor, FRED: 3-month Treasury bills (TB3MS), FRED: US dollars per euro (DEXUSEU), BlackRock: iShares S&P 500 EUR Hedged UCITS ETF, IRS: NRA Withholding.
Educational notice: this guide is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any fund, ETF or currency. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.