STOCKS

S&P 500 up 2.46% for the quarter with two sessions to go

Updated September 29, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov

Cut-off date: every figure in this article uses the official close of Monday, September 28, 2026, the latest confirmed close at the time of writing. The third quarter ends on Wednesday, September 30, so two sessions remain (September 29 and 30) that could change the final tally. All the closes compared here come from the same source, the Associated Press daily market summary, so the calculations use the same type of data.

VERIFIED The S&P 500 closed the September 28, 2026 session at 7,683.69 points, down 59.72 points (−0.8%). The Dow Jones closed at 51,481.51 points (−0.7%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,820.38 points (−0.9%). Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 838.19 points (+12.2%), the Dow Jones 7.1% and the Nasdaq 15.4%. That same day, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, according to Associated Press (via KRMG) [1].

September and the quarter, by our own calculation

VERIFIED The three reference closes we use are: June 30, 2026 (last day of the second quarter), 7,499.36 points, according to Associated Press (via Yahoo Finance) [5]; August 25, 7,677.28 points — the close our previous S&P 500 analysis started from —, according to Associated Press (via KRMG) [6]; and August 31 (last day of August), 7,686.14 points, according to Associated Press (via WTOP) [4].

CALCULATED Using those closes, as of September 28 the S&P 500 is +2.46% for the third quarter — (7,683.69 − 7,499.36) / 7,499.36 × 100 —; −0.03% for September — (7,683.69 − 7,686.14) / 7,686.14 × 100 —; and +0.08% since August 25 — (7,683.69 − 7,677.28) / 7,677.28 × 100. In other words, more than a month later and with a Federal Reserve rate hike in between, the index is practically where it was. These are Claromercado's own calculations on verified closes, not figures published as such by any source.

Change to the Sep 28, 2026 close — our calculation on Associated Press closes
Period	S&P 500	Dow Jones	Nasdaq
Third quarter (since Jun 30)	+2.46%	−1.60%	+2.31%
September (since Aug 31)	−0.03%	−3.20%	+1.70%
Since Aug 25	+0.08%	−3.91%	+2.56%

Three indexes, three different quarters

VERIFIED The Dow Jones closed at 52,319.20 points on June 30, 53,577.40 on August 25 and 53,185.90 on August 31; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,213.72, 26,151.30 and 26,370.89 points on those same dates, according to the same Associated Press summaries [4] [5] [6].

CALCULATED Against the September 28 close, the Dow Jones is down 1.60% for the quarter and 3.20% for September, while the Nasdaq is up 2.31% and 1.70%, respectively. The gap between the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones in September is almost 5 percentage points in a single month. The S&P 500 sits in between, which fits its makeup: it includes the big tech names that weigh on the Nasdaq as well as the industrial, financial and consumer companies that dominate the Dow. Claromercado's own calculation.

HYPOTHESIS One possible reading of this divergence is that rising Treasury yields and oil prices have weighed more on old-economy companies than on artificial-intelligence-linked tech stocks, which kept attracting buyers. It fits what the daily reports cited below described, but it is an interpretation, not a causal link verified by this site.

The last week, session by session

VERIFIED After closing at 7,650.50 points on September 18 [3], the S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Monday the 21st to 7,764.70 points; on the 22nd it closed practically flat at 7,764.64; on the 23rd it fell 0.8% to 7,706.03; on the 24th it finished almost unchanged at 7,704.13; and on Friday the 25th it rose 0.5% to 7,743.41, closing out its first winning week in the last three with a weekly gain of 1.2%, according to the Associated Press daily summaries (Sep 21, Sep 22, Sep 23, Sep 24, Sep 25) [2] [7]. That week, the Nasdaq gained 2.1% and the Dow Jones 0.3% [2]. Meta rose roughly 13% on the 25th after launching its Muse AI agent, and the 10-year yield touched 5.18%, according to Yahoo Finance [8].

VERIFIED On Monday the 28th, Nvidia announced a $150 billion expansion of its share buyback program, the largest in its history, which it intends to carry out through January 2028, along with plans to raise its dividend without specifying by how much or when, according to SiliconANGLE [9]. Even so, the index closed lower: Associated Press attributes the session to uncertainty over when oil tankers will be able to cross the Strait of Hormuz freely again because of the war with Iran [1].

The backdrop: higher rates and bond yields at 2007 highs

VERIFIED On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% range, its first hike since July 2023, and the median projection of its members points to another hike before year-end, according to Fox Business [10].

CALCULATED The 10-year yield went from the 5.00% cited by Associated Press at the September 18 close [3] to 5.23% on September 28 [1]: 23 basis points in six sessions. Over the same stretch the S&P 500 rose 0.43% — (7,683.69 − 7,650.50) / 7,650.50 × 100 —, so for now the stock market has absorbed the rise in long-term rates without falling. Claromercado's own calculation on figures from the same source.

How far from the record, and what September 30 would take

VERIFIED On August 13, 2026 the S&P 500 set an all-time closing high of 7,798.99 points, according to Associated Press (via KRMG) [11]. None of the later closes cited in this article exceeds it; the highest of the last week was 7,764.70 points, on September 21 [7].

CALCULATED As of September 28, the index is 1.48% below the August 13 record, and would need to rise 1.50% to match it. To finish September in positive territory it only has to close on the 30th above 7,686.14 points, just 0.03% above Monday's close. And for the third quarter to end in the red it would have to fall 2.40% over the last two sessions, below 7,499.36 points. These are thresholds calculated by Claromercado, not forecasts.

What this does NOT mean

HYPOTHESIS The S&P 500 being 1.5% from its record does not mean it will reach it, just as a positive quarter does not guarantee the next one. With the 10-year yield at its highest since 2007, a Fed that has started hiking again and oil hanging on events in Hormuz, a single inflation reading or geopolitical headline is enough to move the index several points in either direction. The thresholds above only show what would have to happen, not what will happen.

Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.