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Brent crude jumps to $108 after new Middle East strikes

Updated September 26, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov

Thirteenth correction, September 19, 2026: the September 18 session now has a confirmed close — Brent extended the earlier correction's decline for a third straight session. The rest of the article, with all earlier corrections, remains below as historical context.

VERIFIED Brent (ICE November contract) closed the September 18, 2026 session at $103.87 a barrel, down $0.95 (-0.9%), while West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX October contract) fell $1.93 (-1.88%) to settle at $100.30, according to DTN.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute the fresh drop to mixed supply signals: Saudi Arabia's planned force majeure on European deliveries coincided with ongoing repairs to its pipeline, while a spread of more than $2 between the October and November WTI contracts kept pointing to near-term supply tightness. This is the reading circulating that day, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to the same source.

What was behind the September 17 drop (earlier correction)

VERIFIED Brent closed the September 17, 2026 session at $104.82 a barrel, down $1.01 on the day (-1.0%), while West Texas Intermediate lost 52 cents to settle at $101.91, according to Rigzone.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute the drop to signs that war-driven market tightness may still persist even as some Middle East supply disruptions ease: Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, and is also making additional crude cargoes available to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman's Sohar port, letting shuttle vessels cross the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding the risk of an Iranian attack. This is the reading circulating that day, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to the same source.

The confirmed September 16 close (earlier correction)

VERIFIED Brent closed the September 16, 2026 session at $105.83 a barrel, down 2.7% on the day, after the United States said the Saudi East-West pipeline damaged in the drone attack would resume operations within days, according to CNBC.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute the drop to the prospect of a quick pipeline repair easing the real risk to Saudi export capacity that had spiked prices two sessions earlier, reducing fears of a prolonged shortage. This is the reading circulating that day, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to the same source.

What was behind the September 15 jump (earlier correction)

VERIFIED Brent rose to $108.48 a barrel (+2.6%) and West Texas Intermediate rose to $104.65 (+3.2%) on September 15, 2026, according to CNBC and Yahoo Finance.

What is behind today's jump

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute the rise to the formal shutdown of the Saudi East-West pipeline, which Saudi Arabia described as a "precautionary measure" after it sustained damage in a drone attack launched from Iraq. The roughly 750-mile system has a design capacity of 7 million barrels a day, and its closure puts more than 4 million barrels a day of export capacity at risk, forcing additional volumes toward the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn prices could rally sharply if the pipeline stays offline beyond the estimated five-to-seven-day inventory cushion; Goldman Sachs noted that the attacks on oil infrastructure "mark a meaningful escalation of the conflict and increase the probability of our price upside scenario, where Brent exceeds $120." This is the reading circulating today, not a fact independently verified by this site, according to CNBC.

CALCULATED Between September 3 and September 18, Brent went from $95.25 to $103.87, a +9.05% change — (103.87 − 95.25) / 95.25 × 100 — although it reached an intermediate peak of $108.48 on September 15. This is Claromercado's own calculation based on two figures already verified above, not a figure published as such by any source, and it does not describe a sustained rise: the price was nearly $5 higher midway through.

Offshore oil platform at night, with a lit gas flare and smoke from the process towers — Offshore oil platform, illustrative image (not tied to a specific figure in this article). Photo: Wikimedia Commons, public domain (CC0).

Recent move history

Condensed summary of the corrections prior to the September 17 one. It reflects the reading circulating on each date, not a fact independently verified by this site, unless otherwise stated.

September 14: Brent opened with a +3.46% jump to $108.23, after a weekend of fresh strikes — damage in Jizan attributed to the Houthis, a vessel struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and the postponement of the planned Oman meeting between Gulf states and Iran —, according to Yahoo Finance and CNBC.
September 11: Brent closed down 2.8% at $104.61, despite a weekly gain of 8.7%. It coincided with the announcement of an Iran-Gulf meeting in Oman on the Strait of Hormuz — a meeting that, as the September 14 correction notes, ended up being postponed —, as well as an upward EIA revision to its 2027 US production forecast and an IEA cut to its global demand forecast, according to CNBC.
September 10: Brent rose 5.9% to $107.63, its highest level in nearly four months, amid a continued escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran, according to Bloomberg and TheStreet.
September 9: Brent topped $100 for the first time since July, the same night the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to a missile attack on a US warship; Iran in turn claimed it had attacked two vessels and eight US-linked tankers and warned crews near Kuwait and Bahrain, according to CNBC and Al Jazeera.
September 8: Brent touched an intraday high of $99.46 after a Houthi missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran and Jizan and an air base in Khamis Mushait, which wounded 73 people, according to CNBC and U.S. News.
September 7: Brent rose 1.5% to $97.73 after the US and Iran fired on each other's ships and new strikes hit Saudi Aramco facilities, according to CNBC.
September 3–4: Brent topped $96 (a six-week high) and ended the week up close to 9%, after Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, according to CNBC and Trading Economics; Israel's warning that it could "cripple" Iranian infrastructure also weighed, according to The Washington Post.
September 3 (morning): before the strike on Kuwait, Brent traded at $95.25 (-0.40%), snapping a three-session rally; the market read the earlier US strike on Iran as a one-off — a reading the strike on Kuwait hours later proved wrong —, according to Yahoo Finance.
September 2: crude rose for a third consecutive session on new US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, the collapse of talks on the Strait of Hormuz, and Russian strikes on refineries, according to Yahoo Finance and Trading Economics.
August 25 (original version): Brent was pulling back because oil's "war premium" appeared to be unwinding, with less tension around US sanctions on Iran — an easing that proved temporary, as the subsequent rally shows, according to CNBC.

Summary of the stretch

Between August 25 and September 19, 2026, Brent went from an initial drop attributed to the fading "war premium" to a sustained escalation of the US-Iran conflict in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, with successive highs after each new attack (Kuwait, Saudi Aramco facilities, the Saudi East-West pipeline) and partial pullbacks whenever a repair or a path toward de-escalation was announced.

HYPOTHESIS Several outlets attribute this pattern to the market still pricing, above all, the risk of a prolonged supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz rather than a structural shift in supply or demand: each new incident sends the price higher and each sign of normalization corrects it lower. This is the reading that has circulated throughout these weeks, not a fact independently verified by this site.

What this does not mean

HYPOTHESIS A one-day drop does not by itself say whether last month's downward trend will continue. Brent remains almost a third more expensive than a year ago, so the recent pullback is a correction within a still-high level, not necessarily the start of something else.

Sources for the thirteenth correction, September 19, 2026: DTN: Oil Ends Week Above $100 Bbl as More Swings Seen. Sources for the twelfth correction, September 18, 2026: Rigzone: Oil Falls as Mideast Flows Improve. Sources for the eleventh correction, September 17, 2026: CNBC: Oil prices fall after U.S. says damaged Saudi pipeline will restart operations in days. Sources for the tenth correction, September 15, 2026: CNBC: Oil's safety net is fraying as Saudi Arabia races to restart a key pipeline, Yahoo Finance: Brent Hits $108 as Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Deepens Supply Fears. Sources for the condensed history (August 25 → September 14, 2026): Yahoo Finance: Oil prices jump more than $3 after new strikes on Saudi, Strait of Hormuz, CNBC: Oil prices rise after Saudi Arabia shut down critical pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz, CNBC: Oil price today, Iran, Brent, WTI, TheStreet: Stock Market Today, Sept. 10, 2026, Bloomberg: Oil Extends Rally Above $100 as Middle East Hostilities Escalate, CNBC: Oil prices today, WTI, Brent, U.S.-Iran, Hormuz attacks, Al Jazeera: Global stocks slide as Brent crude surpasses $100 a barrel, CNBC: Oil prices today, Brent, WTI, Strait of Hormuz, Iran war, U.S. News: Houthi attacks on the kingdom, CNBC: Oil prices rise to 6-week high after Iran and U.S. trade blows, Saudi Aramco facilities reportedly hit, CNBC: Oil price today, Iran war, Strait of Hormuz, Trading Economics: Brent Crude Oil, The Washington Post: Iran fires missiles and drones at Kuwait, Yahoo Finance: Gold price today, Iran war, Yahoo Finance, Fortune: Current price of oil as of August 25, 2026, CNBC: Oil price today, WTI, Brent, U.S. sanctions, Iran.

Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.