Bitcoin slips back to $83,000 as yields and oil climb, yet is up 5.7% since August
Published September 29, 2026. · Written by Svetoslav Grigorov
How this analysis is built: every price figure compared against another comes from a single series, Yahoo Finance's daily BTC-USD historical data [1] (calendar days in UTC), and always from the same type of price (open against open, close against close). That is why the August 25 starting point does not exactly match the Coinbase figure the August 25 analysis was published with: mixing two different providers in one calculation would produce a change that measures nothing real.
VERIFIED Bitcoin opened September 29, 2026 (00:00 UTC) at $83,488.00, according to Yahoo Finance historical data [1]. A few hours later it was trading just above $83,100, down less than 1%, while Brent crude neared $107 a barrel and the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.25%, according to CoinDesk [4]. The day before, September 28, Bitcoin had opened at $84,457.30 and fell to $82,957.64 by 7:20 a.m. ET; on that date it was up 4.1% over a week, up 5.2% over a month and down 23% over a year, according to Yahoo Finance [2].
How much it has really gained since August 25
CALCULATED Using the same series and the same type of price, Bitcoin opened August 25 at $78,960.09 and September 29 at $83,488.00 [1]. The change is +5.73% — (83,488.00 − 78,960.09) / 78,960.09 × 100. This is Claromercado's own calculation, not a figure published as such by any source. In other words: after five weeks that included a drop into the $75,000 area and a rally above $87,000, the net result is a moderate gain.
CALCULATED The path in between was far wider than that net result. The period's intraday low was $74,944.59 on September 15 and its high was $87,363.76 on September 21 [1]: from one to the other is a +16.57% rise in six days. From that high to the September 29 open, the pullback is −4.44%. Our own calculations on the same series.
CALCULATED Taking a longer view, from the June 30 close ($58,558.86) to the September 29 open, Bitcoin is up +42.57% in the third quarter of 2026 [1], with one session still to go. Even so, it remains far from its all-time high of $126,198.07 set on October 6, 2025, as listed by Yahoo Finance [2]: the current price is −33.84% below it, and would need to rise +51.16% to get back there. The asymmetry is arithmetic, not a forecast: after falling by a third, it takes a gain of one half to return to the starting point.
A busier month than the net result suggests
CALCULATED Between the August 25 close and the September 27 close (the last complete daily close available in the series, which shows no row for the 28th) there are 33 daily changes [1]. Their standard deviation is 2.15% per day, equivalent to an annualized volatility of around 41% (multiplying by the square root of 365, since Bitcoin trades every day). In five of those 33 sessions the price moved more than 3% in a single day: three gains (September 3, +5.14%; September 18, +5.89%; September 21, +6.73%) and two drops (August 28, −3.02%; September 15, −3.26%). Three days account for much of the month's advance.
ETFs: the best week of the year, but with shrinking inflows
VERIFIED US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.4 billion in the week ended September 25, their largest weekly inflow since October 10, 2025, based on SoSoValue data reported by The Block [6]. By day: $999.0 million on Monday, $714.7 million on Tuesday, $347.0 million on Wednesday, $190.6 million on Thursday and $134.5 million on Friday. BlackRock's IBIT took about $1.2 billion; Fidelity's FBTC, $701.7 million. With that week, the year's net flows turned positive ($934.1 million), after sitting at −$5.8 billion on July 13, according to the same source.
CALCULATED Based on the same source's daily figures, Friday's inflow was 86.5% lower than Monday's ($134.5 million versus $999.0 million), and the five days add up to $2,385.8 million, consistent with the rounded $2.4 billion. From July 13 to September 25, the ETFs' year-to-date balance improved by about $6,734 million (from −$5,800 million to +$934.1 million). These are our own calculations: institutional demand was strong, but it cooled day by day during the same week the price stopped rising.
What is weighing on the price this week
VERIFIED On September 23, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points to 5.127%, its highest level since 2007, and Bitcoin pulled back toward $84,000, according to CoinDesk [5]. On September 28, Brent topped $100 ($100.83, +3.2%) after President Trump rejected Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz; that same day, Bitcoin futures open interest fell to 650,000 BTC, the lowest since March, and funding rates were negative across major exchanges, according to CoinDesk [3]. The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, to a 3.75%-4.00% range, its first hike since July 2023, according to Fox Business [7].
HYPOTHESIS The outlets cited attribute the weakness of recent days to a strong dollar, rising bond yields and pricier oil driven by pessimism over peace with Iran, factors that make non-yielding assets less attractive [2]. CoinDesk adds that traders are pricing in further rate hikes ahead of Wednesday's (September 30) PCE inflation data, and quotes Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, who sees Bitcoin testing the lower boundary of last week's consolidation range [4]. This is the reading circulating these days, not a causal relationship independently verified by this site.
What this does NOT mean
HYPOTHESIS A +5.73% gain over five weeks does not confirm an uptrend, and a −4.44% pullback from the high does not confirm a trend reversal either: with daily volatility of around 2%, a move of that size fits within two or three ordinary sessions. Nor can the shrinking ETF inflows be read as outflows: on Friday the 25th, flows were still positive. What the outlets cited do suggest is that the market currently depends more on macro (bonds, oil, the Fed) than on Bitcoin-specific news, and that the September 30 PCE release is the next test.
Sources: [1] Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data (accessed September 29, 2026); [2] Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Monday, September 28, 2026; [3] CoinDesk: Bitcoin drops to $83,000 as oil climbs back above $100; [4] CoinDesk: Bitcoin slips to $83,000 as ZEC drops 12% and oil climbs again; [5] CoinDesk: Live updates, Bitcoin pulls back to $84,000 as bond yields fly higher; [6] The Block: Bitcoin ETFs turn positive for 2026 with $2.4 billion weekly inflow; [7] Fox Business: Fed hikes interest rates for first time since 2023.
Educational notice: this article is analysis based on public data, may be wrong, and is not financial advice. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. The decision and the risk are always the reader's own.